How is this different from OddsJam or a positive EV tool?

It's a different product, not a better version of that one. OddsJam and similar tools compare prices across sportsbooks and surface where the market is mispricing itself. Sharp Retriever doesn't touch sportsbook prices at all — the model reads baseball (starting pitcher matchups, bullpen state, park factors, weather, splits) and publishes a read on the game itself. If you want odds-shopping, that's a different tool. If you want a documented, graded prediction on the outcome, that's this one.

Every play is published at least 60 minutes before first pitch. This is a hard rule — the pick is locked and posted before lineups, weather, and last-minute news are fully in, so there's no temptation to quietly revise a read after the fact.

What happens during a losing stretch?

Losing stretches happen in any system — the question is whether the process is still sound when they do. We don't pull picks, adjust the model, or quietly drop a bad stretch from the record. Every graded result posts, win or lose, so you can see for yourself whether a rough run is variance or a real problem.

What does the model actually use?

Baseball, and only baseball: starting pitcher quality (xwOBA, swinging-strike rate, contact quality), bullpen fatigue and rest, team batting splits by handedness, park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies. It does not use sportsbook odds, opening lines, or line movement as an input — the read is independent of the market, full stop.

MLBLive NFLSep '26 NCAAFAug '26 NBAOct '26 NHLOct '26 NCAABNov '26

Every loss we've ever taken. On the record. Un-editable. Go check.

No cherry-picked weeks. No deleted picks. No quiet swap to dodge a bad stretch — every read the model has ever published, win or lose.

Every pick, ever published

514–416930 settled since June 13, 2026

Every pick is written to the ledger before first pitch and locked by the database itself — not a policy, an enforced constraint. No edits. No deletions. No quietly removed losses.

See the record by tier and market →Want the full pick-by-pick results? Contact us →

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Sharp Retriever's h2h model scores every MLB game — pitching matchup, team form, park factors, rest days, weather — and publishes picks before first pitch. Every pick is logged before game time and graded on the final score. Nothing here is a promise about tomorrow. It's a record you can check yourself.

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TODAY'S PICKS

Today's Free Read

BIRD DOG · On the scent

HOU@

NYMSun, Aug 30, 3:11 PM EDT

Houston Astros @ New York Mets

HOU SPEthan Pecko(R)

NYM SPZac Thornton(L)

HOU ML+106

NYM ML-116

Totalo9 -114 / u9 -106

Model's strongest leanUnder 9 · proj 8.3· model read 60%

↓ also:New York Mets ML· read 59%

↓ also:HOU +1.5· read 52%

The Read

The model's 60% read is driven primarily by the factors below.

Park Factorslightly pitcher-friendly

The park's run factor sits at 96, a modest depression on run scoring for both offenses.

Pitching Matchupaway SP struggling

The visiting starter has allowed contact roughly 34% harder than his own career baseline over his last 5 starts.

Bullpencomparable pen workload

Both bullpens enter with similar recent usage — no structural late-inning edge for either side.

13 more reads today, including a Big Dog.

This is today's free read. Subscribers get the full slate — every read, every tier, full reasoning.

Unlock the Full Slate →

Last 7 days: 34–34 · 50.0%Track record →

See Full Breakdown →

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Process

Three Steps. No Guesswork.

MODEL SCORES GAME

The Sharp Retriever h2h model evaluates every MLB game using 193 features — starting pitcher matchup, team batting splits, park factors, rest, and weather. One probability per game, derived from 2015–2026 historical data. No human override.

PICK PUBLISHES

When the model's conviction clears the threshold, a pick publishes before first pitch — team, tier (Big Dog / Bird Dog / Guard Dog), and full reasoning. Every pick is logged in writing before the game starts. No retroactive changes.

RECORD KEPT

Every pick is graded on the final score. Win, loss, push — all tracked and posted to the public Track Record page.

Plans

One Sport. One Model. Full Transparency.

NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL & NCAAB

Live

MLB model is live — picks post daily before game time.

View today's picks →MLB standings →

Built to be right. Honest enough to show when it isn't.

Every tout online is crushing it this week. None of them show you the weeks they got buried — which is exactly why their numbers don't mean anything. We post the whole record, and we post each read before the game starts, so there's nothing to dress up after the fact.

A model that never reads a headline, never rides a hot streak, never touches a call once first pitch is thrown. It's built to be right. The proof that it's honest is that you see every time it isn't.

See what the model published today →

FAQ

Questions.

Need help? Contact us — we respond within 24 hours.